By: Ahmed Rufa’i
A university don and agricultural extension expert with the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services (NAERLS), Ahmadu Bello University (ABU), Zaria, Dr. Imam Isah Musa, has cautioned that the recent drop in prices of staple food commodities, especially rice and maize, could precipitate a long-term food crisis in Nigeria if urgent corrective measures are not taken.
Dr. Imam Isah Musa made the warning an article obtained by TRUTHS FINDER and said Nigeria is richly endowed with vast, fertile and cultivable land capable of supporting the production of diverse food crops for human, livestock and industrial use, stressing that rice and maize have, over the years, emerged as highly strategic crops in the country’s food system.
The University Don added that “the two staples are produced in almost all states of the federation, engaging over 12 million rice farmers and more than 50 million maize farmers nationwide, while about 90 million Nigerians depend directly on their processing and value-chain activities for their livelihoods”.
According to him “though many consumers have welcomed the recent fall in food prices across major markets, the agricultural expert warned that the trend reflects an unhealthy economic imbalance”.
He explained that significant price drops in agricultural commodities usually occur during peak harvest periods, not off-season.
“The current price fall is unlikely to be driven by increased local production,” Dr. Musa noted. “Rather, it appears to be linked to the easing of food import restrictions, which poses serious risks to local farmers.”
He acknowledged that lower prices offer temporary relief to households battling food inflation and nutrition challenges but warned that the long-term implications could be devastating, particularly for smallholder farmers.
Dr. Musa said sustained low prices would discourage millions of farmers, leading to reduced production, widening supply deficits, increased dependence on food imports and worsening food insecurity, especially in vulnerable rural communities.
He further expressed concern that the situation could worsen when the harvest season fully sets in over the coming months, potentially resulting in market glut and further price crashes. According to him, many farmers may be unable to recover their production costs, let alone make profits.
The NAERLS expert pointed out that the 2025/2026 production season has been marked by unprecedented increases in the cost of farm inputs such as fertiliser, herbicides, labour, fuel and transportation, compounded by high interest rates exceeding 30 per cent.
“Harvest season is usually a time of joy for farmers, but this year’s harvest may be one of the most challenging in recent history,” he warned, adding that the situation could lead to income collapse, loan defaults, job losses, declining agricultural GDP and social instability.
Dr. Musa called for urgent government intervention to correct market distortions and avert what he described as an impending food crisis.
He recommended short-term measures including the introduction of a Minimum Support Price (MSP) for key staples, activation of strategic grain reserves to absorb surplus produce, and targeted debt relief for farmers affected by price crashes.
On the medium term, he urged government to reduce production costs through subsidised inputs, affordable mechanisation and energy support for agriculture, including preferential electricity tariffs and investment in solar-powered irrigation and farm machinery.
“The same speed and strategy used to crash food prices must be applied to bring down production costs,” he said. “Only then can we protect farmers, ensure food security and achieve sustainable benefits for consumers and the nation.”
Dr. Musa concluded that the current development exposes the fragile and often misunderstood nature of Nigeria’s agricultural sector, warning that without decisive action, farmers remain at risk and the country’s food supply faces growing uncertainty.
